节选自 金唢呐 “年年岁岁球相似，人不同(7)”

扯远了，还接着说世界杯吧。退一步说，即使世界杯偶尔有点猫腻也没什么，毕竟是游戏，跟死亡几千万人的大案要案根本不能比。但即使是游戏，能不能按游戏规则来玩，敢不敢按游戏规则来玩，输的起还是输不起，对一个民族来说也是个考验。这次章鱼保罗预测世界杯胜负的事情就令人感慨万千。故事情节很简单，世界杯期间德国奥伯豪森水族馆凑趣助兴，让一位名曰保罗的章鱼预测比赛胜负，具体说就是在覆盖国旗的盒子里放上章鱼爱吃的食物，保罗吃哪个哪个胜。保罗目前预测的6场比赛，准确率达到100%。小组赛保罗的预测是两胜一负：胜澳大利亚、胜加纳、负塞尔维亚，结果全对了；淘汰赛预测是两胜一负：淘汰赛胜英格兰、胜阿根廷、负西班牙，结果也全对了。

后来科学家（实为砖家，见 http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=820733934 ）分析说，这是与章鱼的视觉系统和食物爱好有关。章鱼是海洋中不多见的非色盲软体动物，有丰富的视锥细胞与视杆细胞，可以敏锐地分辨颜色，和湖南农民运动中的贫协一样，眼睛是雪亮的，谁个劣谁个不劣，一眼就能看出来。而章鱼体内需要虾青素，所以偏食于虾、蟹等甲壳类动物。德国国旗是黑、红、黄，这是章鱼最喜欢的食物的颜色，分明是躲在黑暗中两条大虾。澳大利亚的国旗是深蓝+红色米字，章鱼认为食物太小如鸡肋而放弃，所以澳大利亚输。而塞尔维亚的国旗，不但有一条大虾，还有一个螃蟹，章鱼认为清蒸螃蟹加红焖大虾比单吃大虾更解馋，所以没选德国，德国输了。按理说，加纳的国旗跟德国国旗有相似的地方，但恰恰因为那个五星，让章鱼认为有杂质或危险，反而选择德国，所以加纳小负德国。英格兰呢？一个醒目的红十字，如同红布对于公牛一样让章鱼不悦，促使章鱼选择德国，结果英格兰大败。阿根廷国旗是水草的颜色，无虾无蟹，鱼以食为天，先吃饱了肚子再到水草中玩耍嬉戏，所以阿根廷大败无可避免。最后对西班牙，人家的国旗是三虾一螃蟹，无论数量还是品种都超过了德国，章鱼哥选择西班牙就像中国农民革命选择了毛泽东一样，成了历史的必然。章鱼哥认准了虾兵蟹将，所以这次冠亚军决赛，人家还是照样选西班牙胜。

用另一条章鱼试试，看看它的选择和保罗是否相同

呵呵，要用一批章鱼去试，看看它们的选择与国旗图案究竟有没有系统相关性。

有道理，那些解释对不对，只需多用几条章鱼试试即可
只是世界杯赢球与否与该国的国旗有关，这本身就是一件趣事啊！

金唢呐写了很多大文章，比如“中国的事儿，难说”：
http://bbs.0513.org/thread-497253-1-1.html

这个理论显然不自洽. 欧洲杯时Paul"预测"德国胜西班牙.

呵呵，Good point！ 所以那人“实为砖家”。:-)

不过我想那人的看法主要是提醒一种可能性，那就是章鱼所做的选择未必是随机选择。至于他的具体说法，即便有道理也顶多是统计关联。毕竟，不仅不同章鱼的口味未必完全一致，同一条章鱼的口味也未必始终如一。

刘建宏自称已看清章鱼预测奥秘
2010年07月11日00:46 中国新闻网

　　中新网约翰内斯堡7月10日电(记者 沈晨)央视名嘴刘建宏昨晚在约堡富丽华大酒店出席晚宴时表示，“章鱼哥”保罗背后有着一支强大的参谋团队，以支撑“章鱼哥”在预测世界杯比赛时作出准确的判断，这其实就是德国奥伯豪森水族馆的“公关营销”。

　　刘建宏透露，他最近一直在关注“章鱼哥”。这几天，他感觉自己基本上能看清楚“章鱼哥”为什么能够如此准确地判断出比赛的结果了。

　　刘建宏认为，“章鱼哥”之所以能够准确地预测出多场比赛的胜负，关键是在它背后有着一支强大的参谋团队。这支参谋团队根据数据分析、情报分析，基本上能够对一场比赛的走势作出判断。而“章鱼哥”的饲料是人为可以控制得，参谋团队利用“章鱼哥”的饮食习惯，可以将预判的结果，通过“章鱼哥”的行动来展现给全世界的球迷。

　　刘建宏指出，“章鱼哥”在全球引起轰动，本身就是一个很好的“公关营销”范例。最终得利的是德国奥伯豪森水族馆，通过“章鱼哥”保罗的预测判断，在全球范围内引起了关注，知名度得到了很大提升。在“章鱼哥”的影响之下，德国奥伯豪森水族馆官方网站点击率暴增，欲前往该水族馆参观的游客也大幅增加。

　　南非世界杯期间，“章鱼哥”战胜了许多预测专家，在它参与的世界杯预测中，全部猜中了最终的比赛结果，就连德国爆冷输给塞尔维亚也不例外。值得一提的是，早在2年前的欧洲杯上，保罗猜对了5场中的4场。

　　日前，“章鱼哥”在预测决赛结果时，指出西班牙队最终将战胜荷兰队夺冠。西班牙首相帕萨雷罗听说此事后，开玩笑称，他很担心保罗的安全，将为它请贴身保镖。

　　奥伯豪森水族馆负责人安娜·波特曼近日在接受记者采访时表示，大约90%的游客都会问“保罗在哪里？”。

　　她说：“我们无法确认保罗到底给我们带来了多少额外的客源，也许几周之后，世界杯热潮过去了，我们才能大致了解保罗究竟吸引了多少人。当然，我们也希望人们能够继续来看保罗。‘保罗猜球’当然是一次有意为之的推广活动，但我们起初确实没有想到，保罗的知名度会变得那么高，以致于我们接到了来自世界各地的采访请求，大概有一百多次，这是我们始料未及的。 ”

　　据安娜·波特曼介绍，章鱼一般的生命期是三年，2014年巴西世界杯“章鱼哥”肯定无法进行预测了，甚至两年后的欧洲杯也希望渺茫。(完)

查了查 Wikipedia，发现顶楼“砖家”的猜测有些硬伤，章鱼其实几乎已被确定为色盲，而非如该“砖家”所说的“可以敏锐地分辨颜色”。不过它仍有可能通过感知不同国旗造成的明暗区别来作出选择（从这个意义上讲，视觉系统是一种可能因素，顶楼“砖家”在大方向上不算离谱）。

快刀兄所引的央视名嘴刘建宏的猜测是 Wikipedia 所列的第二种可能因素。

[Wikipedia "Paul the Octopus" 词条节录]

Potential biases

Roquain goes on to admit that chance is not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices. He could be choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his evaluation of the countries' flags or the food offered.

The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a colour's hue. Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolour consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, is Paul's usual favorite. But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany. Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on July 6, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.

Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park where Paul was born, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he’s able to recognise flags." Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag. Drosos Koutsoubos, a marine biologist at the University of the Aegean, is more cautious: "Well, I'm not a specialist in the behavior of octopuses and I can't give you with certainty an answer to this particular question. At least to my knowledge, it's rather a matter of random selection rather than any other selection." Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium, puts it more emphatically: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."

Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and "smell" the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions. Bisikov states that Paul could be "easily trained" to choose the right box by smell. According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose.

Theories of his behavior could be systematically tested if Paul were to repeat his selection many times, but he only selects one box per game. A scientific experiment would be more vigilant towards sources of bias, including the flag visuals and potential differences in the preparation of the food.

章鱼哥又胜利了。
100%

现在荷兰人也要吃章鱼了。

又去星空兄提到的神贴看了一眼，见有人呼吁把未来哥剁了喂章鱼。看来章鱼哥起码能做个饱死鬼。:-)

娱乐搞笑而已。
如果没有人为因素，与随机差不多的概率吧。

我试图把昌海兄的Wikipedia "Paul the Octopus"在百度吧帖里转发，结果居然发不了。咱天朝的文字狱搞得也太变态了

回星空兄：
别出现维基或者wikipedia几个字，大多可以发。

直接复制下面这部分：

Potential biases

Roquain goes on to admit that chance is not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices. He could be choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his evaluation of the countries' flags or the food offered.

The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a colour's hue. Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolour consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, is Paul's usual favorite. But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany. Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on July 6, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.

Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park where Paul was born, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he’s able to recognise flags." Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag. Drosos Koutsoubos, a marine biologist at the University of the Aegean, is more cautious: "Well, I'm not a specialist in the behavior of octopuses and I can't give you with certainty an answer to this particular question. At least to my knowledge, it's rather a matter of random selection rather than any other selection." Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium, puts it more emphatically: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."

Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and "smell" the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions. Bisikov states that Paul could be "easily trained" to choose the right box by smell. According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose.

Theories of his behavior could be systematically tested if Paul were to repeat his selection many times, but he only selects one box per game. A scientific experiment would be more vigilant towards sources of bias, including the flag visuals and potential differences in the preparation of the food.

昌海兄，把楼楼上的种类改为“混合”，谢了。